I believe many people have seen the documents issued by the Hubei Enshi Housing Association today. It is also a semi-official industry association in a four-tier city. Standing up to the righteous words, developers are not allowed to cut prices. In the Enshi HS, the developer’s price cut per square meter is more than 200 yuan, which is called a substantial decline! Falling more than 300 yuan! That is called a huge price contrast! Enshi HS believes that if the price sold by the developer is not higher than the cost price, it is simply going astray! The bitter sea is back to the shore! The developer still does not correct?
There are also developers who take the project money to go to the house, what special room to do, secretly tell everyone the news of the discount, and so on, let the Enshi HS think that the behavior of the housing enterprises to release various price reduction signals to the market is Extremely unforgivable, disrupting the market order, is not conducive to the stability of the property market, which is totally unacceptable.
Finally, as a bridge connecting developers and government authorities, the HS warned you that these developers should quickly correct their mistakes. Afterwards, the Housing Society will make unannounced visits. If you are disobedient, hey, don’t blame us for the supervisor. The department reports that you will not know what measures will be taken to curb them.
In an interview with the media, Enshi HS said that it is a self-discipline call. Because real estate associations are industry associations, not government functions, they can only say this. However, don’t forget, the HS is a bridge between the government and the housing companies. If the document is produced by the Housing and Construction Bureau, it is obviously not appropriate. You should know what your reaction is after the document is exposed today. You can think of the HS as a tizuiyang. Because no matter who comes out, it just shows that Enshi wants to maintain the stability of housing prices.
Let’s take a look at Enshi’s real estate market. Is it really necessary to maintain such a critical situation? According to a report from the Enshi Real Estate Association, in 2018, the total number of new commercial housing transactions in Enshi was 24,236, an increase of 3,244 over the same period in 2017; the transaction area was 3,131,700 square meters, an increase of 22.93% compared with the same period in 2017. .
According to the transactions of eight counties and cities, the transaction area of new commercial residential buildings in Quanzhou is the largest in Enshi City, with 10,097 sets sold in 2018, with an area of 1,388,600 square meters, which is close to 45% of the sales area of Jeonju commercial houses; followed by Lichuan County. , sales of 5,914 sets, the transaction area of 687,800 square meters, accounting for 21.99% of the state’s sales area. The highest price in the state is also Enshi City, which is 6,166 yuan / square meter, compared with 2017, the price per square meter rose by 1176.94 yuan, an increase of 23.6%;
The highest increase was in Xuan’en County, which was 25.86% higher than the same period in 2017. The average transaction price of new residential buildings in the three counties of Enshi, Lichuan and Laifeng in the whole state exceeded 4,000 yuan/square meter, and the average transaction price in Badong County was less than 3,000 yuan/square meter. Compared with the same period in 2017, the average transaction price of the eight counties and cities in the whole state showed a general increase. Except for Hefeng and Badong County, the average transaction price of new residential buildings increased by 5% compared with the same period of 2017, and the other six counties and cities all had an increase of more than 10%. Among them, the three counties of Enshi, Laifeng and Xuanen even rose as much as More than 20%. In the first quarter of 2019, a total of 7,985 sets of new homes were registered in Enshi, up 10.4% year-on-year; the record area was 1.02 million square meters, up 10.2% year-on-year.
In the case of Enshi City, the price has a downward trend. From the quarter, the average price of Enshi residential in January was about 6,630 yuan/m2, about 6,572 yuan/m2 in February, and about 6,484 yuan/m2 in March, but only a slight drop. . But what worries the HS is that the volume of Enshi in the first quarter of this year seems to be growing, but it is already slightly tired. Because the inventory is growing, especially the commercial inventory cycle reaches 50 months, this year’s Enshi “two sessions” also specifically proposed to go to commercial real estate inventory.
At the same time, the land market is taking pictures. In the first quarter, a total of 13 parliaments were planned to be distributed, including 4 in January and 1 in circulation; 2 in February and 1 in circulation; 7 in March and 4 in circulation. From the point of view of the nature of land use, these 13 plots accounted for 11 houses, a total of 6 transactions, the remaining two were commercial land, only one transaction. Enshi does not let the housing enterprises cut prices, I am afraid there is suffering. In addition, the number of new construction can also see the potential supply in the future, whether there is pressure. In 2018, Enshi started a new work of 3,946,700 square meters, up 72.65% year-on-year. Last year, 151 new commercial housing projects were approved for sale, with an area of 4,615,500 square meters, up 54.43% year-on-year. The turnover was 336 square meters.
Compared with 2017, there is a significant increase in the new start of 2018 Enshi, which brings potential sales pressure to the market supply in 2019. This is why the Enshi HS is going to introduce red-headed documents. Recently, the listed real estate has gradually increased! Because the new construction has increased too much year-on-year! The scale of Enshi’s sheds has been reduced from 8987 sets in 2018 to 2784 sets in 2019, a significant reduction of -69%. This is a great retreat for the demand of Enshi, because the monetary resettlement itself is four. A driving factor for rising housing prices in the city.
According to the market outlook of the 2018 real estate market report made by the Enshi Real Estate Association, the average transaction price of new commercial housing in Enshi City in 2018 is much higher than that in the key cities of Shihezi, Xiangtan, Guilin, Hengyang and Yinchuan. The number of digits; however, in 2018, the gap in the construction of new commercial housing in Enshi City increased by 167.55% compared with the same period in 2017. In the big environment of market sentiment ebb, the gap between the start-up and the completion of the scissors has been constantly superimposed, the promotion of housing enterprises has begun, and various noisy marketing methods have been staged again. In 2019, downward pressure will be exerted on prices.
Finally, let’s take a look at the fundamentals of Enshi. The Enshi Tujia Autonomous Prefecture is obviously behind other cities. The economy in Hubei is at the bottom of the list. In 2018, the growth rate was only 6.2%, ranking the last one. Although the population is 4.02 million (2017 data), the population growth rate is still falling. Because in 2012, the registered population was 4.03 million. The local government debt rate of Enshi is high, and the debt ratio in 2018 is as high as 150%. Therefore, the pressure to repay debts is also very large.
But the source of fiscal revenue is very limited. In 2018, Enshi’s general public budget income was only 2.12 billion. What is the income of government funds, that is, the income from land transfer fees? 2.77 billion! Higher than normal tax revenue. So how can Enshi not care about the real estate market? Because of the protection of housing prices, Baolou City, in addition to maintaining stability, in the end, everything is to protect the economy, maintain growth, and protect employment. Therefore, Enshi does not let the housing enterprises cut prices, I am afraid there is also suffering! But not to cut prices, the buyer is the buyer.
You can follow my WeChat public account: Cherry House, get all my analysis and investment advice. Cherry House, focusing on real estate for ten years, through in-depth study of macroeconomic trends, to grasp the real estate down cycle for readers, not only empty, not only more, only real. This is the impression that Guo Taiming, who participated in the primaries of the Kuomintang Party in the 2020 general election, gave the outside world. His public opinion support has clearly occupied a favorable position, but it feels like he is being shackled, uncomfortable, and tempered.
Look at the support first. Yesterday (June 11), Taiwan’s “ETtoday News Cloud” released the latest poll data. The data shows that if Taiwan’s 2020 elections show the emergence of blue, green and white, the various combinations will win the most with Guo Taiming. Specific to the most sensitive comparison between Guo Taiming and Korean Yu, the data shows that Guo Taiming’s support is 29.5%, South Korea’s Yu’s support is 24.4%, and Guo Taiming leads South Korea.
Look at the performance of Guo Taiming. Also yesterday, the Kuomintang convened five candidates (or representatives of the candidates) to open a symposium. Guo Taiming killed the Quartet at the meeting. First, the convention is refused. In order to maintain unity within the party and make the party fair and fair in the first place, the Kuomintang prepared a convention in advance, requiring people who participated in the primary election to sign. The main content is not to attack opponents, not to present gifts, and not to be nominated for non-discrimination. Wait. For this primary selection convention, Guo Taiming expressed his disapproval attitude in advance and called on the other four to refuse to sign.
As a result, at the meeting yesterday, other candidates (or representatives of the candidates) were signed, and Guo Taiming said that he did, and refused to sign the convention. Secondly, for 50 minutes, roaring Zhongtian TV. According to the primaries process set up by the Kuomintang, three TV presentations will be held, one of which will be hosted by Zhongtian TV. Guo Taiming heard the news and attacked on the spot. The history of the “Black Guo” in the middle of the day was 50 minutes. Until later, someone came out to play the round field and said that if you don’t let Zhongtian do it, would you like to change it to Sanli or People’s TV? Guo Taiming no longer insists.
Guo Taiming’s above performance can be summarized into four words: new hatred and old hate. The refusal of the convention is due to new hatred. Undoubtedly, because of the primaries, Guo Taiming and South Korea Yu have regarded the other side as an enemy even if they are superficial and timid. It is for this reason that yesterday’s symposium, South Korea’s Yu did not attend, but sent his own confidant Sun Dadai to attend. This should be the intentional avoidance of Korean Yu. Because Korean Yu is also tempered, if he can’t hold the fire, and Guo Taiming is doing it on the spot, it’s hard to clean up.
For the heart of Guo and Han, the famous media person Huang Wei is pessimistic. He posted a letter on Facebook yesterday, arguing that South Korea Yu and Guo Taiming have already let go. Guo started to be sour and Han, there is no taboo; Han powder therefore hates Guo, non-Korean does not vote. Then the South and the Party Central Committee gradually drifted away, seemingly opposite, and the future will be calculated, and it may not be able to have the true support of traditional elites. “So the Kuomintang 2020 ‘President’ general election should not win, no matter who is the final.”
The author analyzes that Guo Taiming’s refusal to sign the convention is to set aside for the South Korean Yu line. Because the convention stipulates that if it is not nominated, it must not be disciplinary. Guo Taiming does not want to be bound by this. Compared with Korean Yu, Guo Taiming and Zhongtian TV can be said to be old hates.
The owner of Zhongtian TV is Cai Yanming, who is very rich and has also become the richest man in Taiwan. He has a richest heart with Guo Taiming. Boss Bo has not only Zhongtian TV, but also two major newspapers, China Times and Business Times. After the jump incident in Foxconn in 2010, the reporter of China Times went to the interview. Guo Taiming was very disdainful and said: “I just don’t buy the media. Otherwise, I will get the share of your boss Cai.” When Guo Taiming made this statement, the two sides formed a beam. In June 2017, because of the dissatisfaction with the report of the “Business Times”, Guo Taiming tore the newspaper on the spot.
In this Taiwan general election, Cai Yanming’s media has always stood on the side of South Korea’s Yu, and did not give much good face to Guo Taiming, which made Guo Taiming very unhappy. Since the announcement of the election, Guo Taiming has come along the way, both the wind and the rain, and the thunder. Then, on the side of his overbearing president, will he have a negative impact on his candidacy? In my opinion, the impact is not great.
Of course, a person’s temper is bad, but if this person is a very capable person, his bad temper will be ignored or forgiven. The poll of “ETtoday News Cloud” shows that among the politicians in Taiwan who are interested in participating in the election, whether it is dealing with the crisis that China-US trade war may cause against Taiwan, attracting Taiwanese businessmen to return, or solving the lack of land and water shortage that manufacturers may face The lack of electricity and other issues are the most recognized by Guo Taiming. In other words, Taiwan voters are highly recognized for his ability.