广州珠江江畔度过一个桑拿夜

From Guangzhou nightlife events to saunas and massage clubs, Guangzhou has been blacklisted, and chips have become a pain for Chinese people. At today’s “Quality Development Strategy Seminar” held by the China Development Strategy Research Association, the two experts mentioned this heartache in unison. “The chip industry is a highly integrated, highly sophisticated, highly international, highly research-oriented industry. The raw materials and components of its core equipment come from dozens of countries around the world, hundreds of suppliers, and they have formed rapidly changing and complex innovations. System. Any short board in the chip industry system may become a constraint, which requires efforts to strengthen the system innovation capability.” At the seminar, the chairman of the China Development Strategy Research Association, the Institute of Science and Technology Strategy Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Chang Pan Jiaofeng said.

Coincidentally, Li Zhengfeng, deputy dean of the School of Social Sciences at Tsinghua University, also talked about the chip issue at the seminar. He said that the chip involves a series of technologies in many fields such as electronics, chemicals, optics, machinery, etc. This “card neck” technology is often a complex technical system. Taking this as an example, Li Zhengfeng believes that the lack of proper interaction and connection between the various elements in the innovation system and the various mismatches between the elements are actually a system failure. “China’s innovation system exists in the top-level design, major science and technology plans and major project organization management mode, industry-university-research cooperation mechanism, basic research leading the support of technological innovation, intellectual property protection policies that encourage innovation and entrepreneurship, talent cultivation reserve and the use of global talents. The ‘system failure’ problem seriously restricts the overall effectiveness of the innovation system. We must make a determination to carry out systematic reforms to the future of the innovation system, solve the ‘system failure’ problem, and comprehensively enhance the overall effectiveness of the innovation system.”

The United States has a leading edge in competition among countries around the world. So what is the advantage of the United States? Li Zhengfeng believes that it is the comprehensive advantage of the innovation system. This advantage includes: the entrepreneurial spirit and social soil that stimulates innovation and entrepreneurship, the relatively mature market economy system and good business environment, the strong scientific foundation and the mechanism of close integration of production, education and research, the multicultural immigration environment and the global talent siphon effect. Fully respect intellectual property rights and a highly competitive environment for the protection of small and medium-sized enterprises, a military-civilian integration system that continuously promotes the development of cutting-edge technologies, extensive international cooperation and global influence.

At the seminar, Pan Jiaofeng highlighted some of the changing characteristics of the technological innovation model. Through the specific analysis of the factors of innovation, he summed up the trend of innovation in the industrial economy era and the knowledge economy era. The first is the popularization of innovation participants. In the era of industrial economy, innovation is a minority of “elite” patents, mainly “single-handedly fighting” by well-trained scientists and engineers. In the era of knowledge economy, innovation breaks down identity restrictions, non-enterprises such as makers and users. When the main body joins in, it can be quickly assembled through the Internet, forming a group collaboration innovation.

Second is the openness of innovative organizations. The industrial economy era is a vertical pagoda-like organizational structure. The innovation cost, efficiency and efficiency are mainly integrated through integration, which is “eyes inward”; while the knowledge economy era innovation is a horizontally aggregated organizational structure, which can be connected to the organization. All external knowledge, technology and human resources are “out of the eye”.

Once again, it is the cross-border of the innovation industry. In the era of industrial economy, innovation is basically the first, second, and third industry categories, and the “well water does not make river water” activities among disciplines of science, engineering, agriculture, and medicine. In the era of knowledge economy, The boundaries of innovative organization, geography, technology, and industry are increasingly blurred. The cross-border integration releases the multiplier effect, and it does not intend to subvert the incumbent enterprise, showing the characteristics of “you have me, I have you”.

The fourth is the platformization of the innovative link mechanism. In the era of industrial economy, innovation manifests itself as a linear process of basic research-application research-industry development. Chains are disconnected from each other. Innovation is like an island, which is a “pipeline” thinking. In the era of knowledge economy, the platform becomes a link to innovative resources and docking production. The key hub of the consumer and the consumer, it reorganizes the connection between people, machines and things, stimulates the network effect, and belongs to the “platform” thinking.

Finally, there is a diversification of sources of innovative funding. In the era of industrial economy, the government has invested in the establishment of national laboratories, large enterprises have invested in the establishment of enterprise laboratories, and has a high barrier to entry. In the era of knowledge economy, the development of “private science” supported by private foundations can be researched through the Internet. Raise, do not need a high entry threshold. In short, innovation has been characterized by centralization and organization in the era of industrial economy, while in the era of knowledge economy, innovation has been characterized by semi-centralization and self-organization. As Li Zhengfeng said, the great achievements of modern economies are not because they have genius, but because “their institutional structure can promote and realize the innovation of mass participation. The innovation of public participation penetrates from the bottom up. To the entire country.” The fiery shop

“One shop for three generations” is a well-known investment concept of the Chinese people in the past few decades. Many people think that the rent of shops is high. If you invest in a shop, you can lie down and count the money. In some places, even the shops were used as the marriage threshold and guarantee for the male family. For this reason, the price of the shop was once heated up in the private sector. Especially in the small cities of the third and fourth tiers, they are extremely obsessed with the investment in shops. Some time ago, I went to Hohhot, Inner Mongolia for a business trip, and was invited to visit a property developed by a friend. I developed a commercial complex of office buildings, apartments and shops. To tell the truth, the location is generally, the developer can sell more money for the shop, the type of the house is changed to a corner, and the opening and deepening are not in line with the rules.

Most importantly, business has not been properly planned and is more confusing. A community should have supermarkets, barbershops, pharmacies, laundries, etc., but this place is close to opening more than a dozen small restaurants, along with hardware, selling ceramic tiles to sell toilets. But what is surprising is that once the store opened, it was sold out. Friends whispered, buyers are basically “rich people” in the surrounding counties, people are more stupid, and some even buy 3 or 4 sets.

According to the ROI, the current 80-square-meter shop in this location is priced at 1.4 million, and the rent is 5,000 yuan per month. It takes 23 years to recover the cost (regardless of inflation), which is a poor quality investment. No doubt. But more people will not be accounted for, or listen to the story told by the developers, continue to make a fortune dream. So, should the store not invest, how to invest? The following sub-woods will help you analyze these things about the investment of the store according to the previous examples.

The value is not worth this time point can probably be divided 5 years ago, around 2014. Since then, relative to the residential, the investment value of the store has encountered Waterloo, and the “one shop for three generations” 180-degree turn has become “three generations for one shop.” Why? The first is the rise of the Internet. Take the example above when I went to Hohhot to see a friend’s real estate. I used a mobile phone to open the US group. The distance was set to nearby, and it was obvious that there were various shops in the apartment in this community, such as nail beauty, pedicure, and small bar. , table games, chess, etc., the number is much better than the bottom floor.

These online stores are located in apartments, which are far cheaper than the base rents, but also private and quiet, and have a market relative to some small businesses. These online stores have greatly scored the business of the bottom business, causing the rent of the shops to be under pressure, and the natural rental return rate will come down. Obviously, the investment shop 10 years ago can be said to be full of earning money. It can receive about 8% of rent every year, and it will get back the principal in 12 years. However, the data of these years has been declining. Most of the shops have a return rate of 2%-5%, and more than 6% are high. It’s been more than 20 years since the funds were put in.

Second is the high transaction costs. The calculation of second-hand shop transaction taxes and fees is extremely complicated. Generally speaking, trading once has to pay about 20% to 30% of the overall house price as a tax, which can swallow up the income from most retail stores. Moreover, the restrictions on commercial loans in many cities are very strict. It is not just a product. The market is not good. The commercial housing can still be sold. However, if the business is not good, it will be completely in the hands.

The transaction tax is high, the leverage is low, and the logistics of the shop is destined to be poor. Therefore, when the developer sells it to your store, it must overdraw at least three years of appreciation space. This means that the price of this shop is now 60,000, and it can be sold to 80,000 in three years. Now the price for you is almost 80,000. And the retail developers in good locations will definitely stay in their hands, and there are few opportunities for leaks.

It turns out that the people have already reached this conclusion with their feet in the past few years. A few days ago, the “Looking Forward” column reporter also conducted an in-depth investigation and found that China’s current second- and third-line commercial real estate inventory is staggering. From January to April 2019, the sales area of ​​commercial business premises (shops) decreased by 8.8% year-on-year. At the end of April, the saleable area of ​​commercial housing was 510 million square meters, a decrease of 2.66 million square meters from the end of March, but the sales area for commercial business buildings increased by 300,000 square meters. Some third- and fourth-line shops began to become large warehouses. So in summary, in terms of investment, shops are not very competitive for housing. And like shops and apartments, there can be no policy dividends now and in the future.

The only trend is that under the current tone, “households are not speculating” to control the price of housing, giving space for shops, and many Internet companies are beginning to return to the entity, such as Tmall, Jingdong, etc., starting to do physical stores, may bring The offline experience bonus, but also minimal. When talking about this technique, some people must start to question. “Everything can’t be absolute. Now there are also high-return shops.” For example, a member of the seminar said a few days ago, “There is no place in the house, and the family just wants it.” The investment shop is self-employed, and I have friends who can achieve a return rate of 10%. What is the method?”

Of course, this positive example is also very much around me, because the investment in shops is also a category of my daily research. It can only be said that the investment shop is very difficult now or in the future. If you make a real estate investment as a grade, then buy a home is a junior high school student, buy an apartment is a high school student, buy an office is an undergraduate student, buy a shop is a graduate student, buy a shop is not a professional, other people are hands-free, it is a professional-level investment target . Below I will share the experience of these years of investment shops. First of all, the investment in shops mainly consists of two parts, one is the value added of the property, and the other is the income from the rent. It is speculation to look at the value-added property. The investment in the medium and long-term rental income is investment.

In the above, I have already discussed that the current market environment is not suitable for the value-added of retail properties, so the value-added of the property should be added value, and the income of the rent is the primary consideration. Even if one day the value of the property itself is extremely small or no longer adds value, the rental income is enough for the daily expenses of a family. This is a good shop. In the final analysis, the rental income depends on the supply and demand itself. The core indicator is the “to-store traffic” of the store, not the local traffic and the regional traffic. For example, the shops along the road, you have to see if the car can stop at your door, not how much traffic on the road.

Another example is that many people have been fooled by new developers and bought shops near the big shopping malls, saying that the traffic is particularly large. But you think, there are everything in the shopping malls, why should you spend it outside? In the end, many buyers bought the contract and learned that they were pitted. Since then, they have embarked on Weiquan Road. Followed by the property-style shops in large shopping malls, that is, telling you before the opening, as long as you sign the contract, the rest will not be managed, it will be operated by a professional company, and then wait for the dividend, this form The shop is a big pit.

Don’t enter the market because of the enthusiasm of one or two big-names for publicity or high returns. Nowadays, most developers are selling in a conspicuous manner, and many of them are unrealistic promises. At that time, whether it is a contract cancellation or a three-to-five-year past developer stop subsidies, it is very likely that the big cards will be withdrawn. And you have to remember, working with the developers, you will never be able to benefit, smart and comfortable.

So what kind of shops are quality assets? Do a sort below. 1. High occupancy, low-end, low-end community, bottom-floor business 2. Downstairs office building downstairs 3. New commercial street frontage shop, which is close to a large high-end community, the purchasing power of the community is strong, and the frequency of consumption is natural. This also determines the rent ceiling for the community store and will determine the potential for future appreciation. In such a place, whether it is a mother-and-baby shop, a pet shop, a restaurant or a pharmacy, it is a very good choice. In this high-quality store, if the timing is right, many of them can recover the cost in 15 years.

Secondly, the bottom floor of the office building, the office building is a high-density carrier. The purchasing power of small white-collar workers is not bad. The most important thing is their time constraints, frequent consumption and concentration, especially fast food restaurants and supermarkets. Get unexpected income. And this is the most realistic feedback on the rental yield of shops.

It is also important to open the street shop of the new commercial street, but you have to gamble whether this commercial street can develop in the future. It is necessary to refer to the number of communities in the surrounding area. The commercial street is equipped with branded restaurants and cinemas. This is attractive. An important commercial body of traffic. Here you can use the thermal map method I have talked about before, through the Baidu map heat map, to see the flow of people around.

Remember, shops must not buy a good store, of course, not only should pay attention to the type of property, location, but also its own structure. For example, the space can be freely divided, the facade is preferably wider, there is no step in front of the door, there is no isolation fence or other coverings, there must be walking trails in front of the door, parking can be done, etc.

In short, there are only a few bad shops, and there are only one good ones. Before you decide to invest in a store, be sure to study more business-savvy shops and analyze their strengths. In the end, you will find that retail investment is tantamount to a small business, not only requires technology but also enough luck. The average person should not try it. If you want to try it, you will study these details. In the future, whether it is a house, an apartment or a shop, investment is a technical activity. This is a good thing, but it is not a good thing.

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